China has recorded a significant increase in crude oil imports, reaching an average of 12.38 million barrels per day in November. This marks a 4.88% rise compared to the same month last year and is the highest import rate since August 2023, according to government data reported by Reuters. The November figures also reflect a 5.24% increase from October, contributing to a total oil import volume of 521.87 million tons for the period from January to November, equivalent to a daily rate of 11.45 million barrels.
Shifts in Supplier Dynamics
Despite the overall increase in imports, shipments from Russia saw a decline, decreasing by 157,000 barrels per day to an average of 1.19 million barrels daily. In contrast, imports from Saudi Arabia surged by 345,000 barrels per day, bringing the total to 1.59 million barrels daily, solidifying Saudi Arabia’s position as China’s top oil supplier for the month. Iranian oil shipments also rose significantly, adding 233,000 barrels daily from October, resulting in an average of 1.35 million barrels per day.
Emma Li, head of China analysis at Vortexa, noted, “Domestic demand has experienced a seasonal decline, but sanctions on crude supplies from Iran and Russia have led to significant price reductions for feedstock. This has boosted refining margins and prompted more refineries to apply for advance import quotas ahead of the first batch in 2026.”
Future Demand and Market Dynamics
Looking ahead, predictions suggest that China’s demand for crude oil is likely to remain weak until at least the middle of next year. While the country’s economic growth is anticipated to be stronger than previously expected, with a projected 1.1% increase in oil demand this year, consumption of transportation fuels appears to have peaked. This insight comes from the Economics and Technology Research Institute, part of state energy major CNPC.
In response to the evolving market, independent refiners in Shandong are increasing their oil purchases and processing capacity after Beijing allocated a new batch of crude import quotas. This surge in buying activity is contributing to a reduction in oil storage levels, which analysts believe could alleviate perceived supply overhangs before the end of the year.
This shift in purchasing patterns and import dynamics highlights the complexities of the global oil market and China’s pivotal role as the world’s leading importer.
