California Governor Gavin Newsom currently leads the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, bolstered by a significant victory on Proposition 50. Polls indicate that Newsom has a six-point advantage over second-place candidate Kamala Harris in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator. Despite this, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro presents a potential challenge that Democrats should consider as they prepare for the upcoming election cycle.
Shapiro, while not as nationally recognized as Newsom, has garnered attention for his pragmatic approach and centrist policies. His most notable national exposure came in the summer of 2024 when Harris contemplated him for her running mate. Nevertheless, a lack of a strong national profile does not preclude success, as reflected in former President Barack Obama‘s rise in the 2008 cycle, where he was initially overshadowed in polls.
Despite his potential, Shapiro faces significant challenges as he weighs a run for the presidency. His centrist stance may alienate the increasingly progressive factions of the Democratic Party. Furthermore, his support for Israel, coupled with his Jewish identity, poses a risk in appealing to the far-left voters who dominate the primary electorate.
Shapiro’s strengths cannot be overlooked. Most notably, he has successfully carried Pennsylvania in three elections—twice as attorney general and once as governor. This skill is critical, as Pennsylvania is a pivotal swing state for any Democratic candidate. Polling data suggests he could perform well, with a hypothetical matchup indicating Shapiro would defeat Vice President J.D. Vance by ten points, securing 53% of the vote compared to Vance’s 43%. This includes a significant lead of 58% to 33% among independent voters, a demographic crucial for winning the state.
While Newsom’s national polling advantage is evident, Democrats must recognize the necessity of appealing to moderate swing voters, rather than solely focusing on progressive bases. As Binyamin Applebaum analyzed in the New York Times, the pressing question for Democrats is identifying the type of candidate who can win in Pennsylvania, rather than relying solely on popularity in deep blue states.
In his previous campaigns, Shapiro has exceeded the vote totals of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, demonstrating his ability to attract a diverse voter base. In his 2020 run for attorney general, he received more votes than either presidential contender. His 2022 gubernatorial campaign also saw him retain Biden’s 2020 electorate while capturing Trump supporters in key suburban regions.
Recent polling from Quinnipiac reveals that 60% of Pennsylvania voters approve of Shapiro’s job performance, with 66% of independents expressing similar sentiments. This high approval rating can be attributed to his substantial achievements, including securing a $20 billion investment from Amazon, providing over $1 billion in aid to farmers, and delivering historic funding for K-12 education—all while implementing tax cuts and managing a divided government.
Republicans are aware of the challenge Shapiro poses to their electoral prospects. GOP strategist David Urban stated that “whoever’s going to run against Josh is going to be pushing a big rock up the hill,” indicating the formidable nature of Shapiro’s potential candidacy. His focus on achieving tangible results for constituents has set him apart from more partisan counterparts. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette emphasized Shapiro’s reputation for collaboration, noting his mantra of “Get (expletive) done,” encapsulated in his motto “G-S-D.”
Shapiro’s centrist approach could be beneficial in a general election; however, it may hinder his chances in the Democratic primary, where progressive candidates are gaining traction. His previous confrontations with Trump during his tenure as attorney general have transitioned into a more conciliatory stance as governor, which may not resonate with the far-left base.
Another significant vulnerability for Shapiro is tied to his support for Israel, which has garnered scrutiny within the Democratic Party. This issue was underscored last April when an assailant targeted the governor’s residence with Molotov cocktails, citing Shapiro’s pro-Israel stance as a motive.
As Democrats look toward the 2028 election, it is clear that Shapiro possesses qualities that could make him a formidable candidate against any Republican challenger. However, to reach the general election, he must navigate the complexities of a primary system that is increasingly influenced by progressive ideologies. Balancing his centrist beliefs with the expectations of the party’s left wing will be critical if he intends to mount a serious challenge for the nomination.
