A series of federal lawsuits supported by allies of former President Donald Trump are currently progressing through the courts. These legal actions could fundamentally alter how individuals are counted in the upcoming 2030 census, potentially reshaping political power and the allocation of federal funding across the United States, particularly in Texas.
One notable case stems from a lawsuit filed in Florida by America First Legal, which challenges the Census Bureau’s use of statistical methods known as “differential privacy” and group-quarters imputation from the 2020 census. The plaintiffs argue that these methods distorted local population counts, thereby impacting representation for citizens. They are seeking to prohibit the use of these techniques in 2030 and to re-evaluate the 2020 census data.
In a separate case in Louisiana, four Republican state attorneys general, along with the Federation for American Immigration Reform, are challenging the inclusion of undocumented immigrants in population totals used for congressional districting. This lawsuit continues a trend among Republican leaders to limit apportionment to only citizens or legal residents, raising significant questions about the future of political representation across the nation.
Controversial Methods Under Scrutiny
The Florida lawsuit specifically targets two technical adjustments implemented by the Census Bureau during the 2020 count. The method of differential privacy intentionally introduces statistical “noise” to protect individual confidentiality, while group-quarters imputation estimates populations in communal living situations, such as dormitories and nursing homes, when direct counts are lacking. Critics argue that these approaches negatively altered population figures and the balance between rural and urban areas. Supporters, however, contend they were vital to safeguarding privacy and ensuring accurate data collection amid challenges posed by the pandemic.
Should the courts rule in favor of the plaintiffs, the repercussions could be profound. A ruling that blocks the Census Bureau’s methods or mandates the exclusion of noncitizens from apportionment calculations could significantly change the political landscape and redirect substantial federal funding. According to the Associated Press, census figures influence the distribution of approximately $2.8 trillion in federal spending annually, impacting various levels of government operations.
Research from the Pew Research Center indicates that California, Texas, Florida, and New York host the largest numbers of unauthorized immigrants. Consequently, any modifications to the criteria for counting individuals in the census would disproportionately affect these states, especially Texas.
Census Bureau’s Preparations for 2030
Despite the ongoing litigation, the Census Bureau is actively preparing for the 2030 count. Plans for a 2026 Census Test are underway, which will take place in six locations, including a site in western Texas. This test aims to evaluate online response tools and new strategies for counting individuals in group living situations, ensuring that the bureau refines its procedures well in advance of the census.
The legal proceedings are already in motion, with America First Legal filing motions for summary judgment and expanding its complaint to include additional plaintiffs. Meanwhile, Democratic-aligned intervenors, represented by Elias Law Group, have requested to join the case to bolster the defense of the Census Bureau’s methods.
The Justice Department has also engaged in the litigation, occasionally urging judges to pause or dismiss certain aspects of the cases as new leadership reviews the department’s position. In the Louisiana case, recent court filings suggest that lifting a stay on proceedings is “not appropriate” while the Census Bureau prepares for the 2030 cycle, indicating that the federal government is cautious about making significant legal changes during this critical planning period.
At the core of these lawsuits lies a complex interpretation of the Constitution and federal law. The Fourteenth Amendment mandates that the federal government count “the whole number of persons in each State,” while 13 U.S.C. section 195 restricts the utilization of statistical sampling for determining apportionment totals. Courts will need to navigate these provisions as they deliberate on the potential remedies to be implemented.
As the litigation unfolds, the implications for political representation and federal funding remain substantial, particularly in states like Texas where demographic changes are closely monitored. The outcome of these lawsuits could redefine the landscape of American politics leading into the next decade.
