Several top-ranking college baseball teams faced unexpected defeats during midweek games this week, raising questions about the impact of these results on postseason seeding. Notably, the No. 1 ranked UCLA lost 4-3 to unranked San Diego State, while No. 2 LSU suffered its first loss of the season, losing 7-6 to McNeese. Additionally, No. 4 Georgia Tech experienced a significant 9-4 defeat against Georgia Southern. These outcomes have prompted discussions about the implications of midweek performances for postseason prospects.
Midweek games, while counted in the standings, do not carry equal weight in postseason implications. Historical data from the past five seasons reveals that performance in midweek games rarely determines postseason placement for top college baseball teams. Instead, weekend series, especially within power conferences, serve as the cornerstone of a team’s resume. Midweek games often act as supplementary statistics, with their significance varying widely among teams.
Last season, for instance, Coastal Carolina managed to secure the No. 13 national seed despite a midweek record of 7-5. This performance led them to the national championship series, outpacing Tennessee, which boasted an impressive 13-1 record in midweek play. This example illustrates that strong weekend performances are often more crucial for postseason seeding than midweek results.
In 2024, NC State earned the No. 10 national seed despite a lackluster 3-6 midweek performance. Similarly, Arizona, UC Santa Barbara, and Oklahoma all secured top 16 seeds without remarkable midweek records. Analyzing previous seasons, teams such as Stanford, Oklahoma State, and East Carolina reached the top eight national seed threshold, even after suffering four or more midweek losses.
A member of the selection committee, who spoke to Baseball America on the condition of anonymity, highlighted the challenges of valuing midweek games. “How a team performs in a one-off game when travel can be involved… is hard to put a lot of value on,” the committee member stated. “From a pure wins-and-losses standpoint, midweeks matter. But in a vacuum, it’s hard to get hung up on them.”
For teams in strong conferences like the SEC, ACC, and Big 12, the selection formula largely focuses on conference performance. These leagues provide ample opportunities for top 50 and top 25 Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) matches during the weekends, rendering a single Tuesday loss less impactful in the overall assessment. The Sun Belt Conference serves as a relevant case study; in 2022, Georgia Southern earned the No. 16 national seed with an 8-5 midweek record, illustrating that standalone game losses do not preclude postseason success.
Conversely, midweek games can hold more significance for teams further from the power leagues. For example, Lamar in 2025 posted an overall record of 40-17 and a 13-3 midweek mark. However, the majority of their midweek victories came against non-tournament teams, ultimately failing to secure an at-large bid. This case exemplifies the limitations of midweek performance in bolstering a team’s resume.
Xavier’s head coach, Billy O’Connor, underscores the importance of treating midweek games with equal seriousness. “You can’t ignore a game on Tuesday just because it’s on a Tuesday and not a Saturday or a Sunday,” O’Connor noted. He emphasized that while winning midweek games can enhance a team’s profile, the implications can differ significantly depending on the teams involved.
At the top of the rankings, midweek losses are often survivable. In the middle tier, they can present opportunities, while for lower-ranked teams, poor performances can become detrimental. O’Connor pointed out that a 3-10 record in midweek games would likely eliminate a team from at-large consideration, whereas an SEC team could withstand a similar record and still qualify for the tournament.
Despite the statistical landscape, coaches do not dismiss the significance of midweek games. Following UCLA’s loss to San Diego State, Bruins coach John Savage emphasized the importance of these games for team structure and player development. “I’ve always taken a lot of value in Tuesdays,” he stated. “It establishes the week.”
While midweek games can provide emotional value and establish team rhythm, their role in shaping postseason outcomes is complex. The recent losses by top teams underscore the unpredictable nature of college baseball, but history suggests that these results are unlikely to dramatically alter postseason brackets.
