As the midterm elections in 2026 draw nearer, the legislative activity in Congress has sharply decreased, raising questions about its effectiveness. Political experts suggest that lawmakers are unlikely to assert themselves significantly in the lead-up to the elections. According to Todd Belt, director of the political management program at George Washington University, “Politicians are risk-averse creatures.” He notes that midterm years often see a reduction in congressional output, as legislators tend to avoid provocative actions during election cycles.
President Donald Trump has been notably active, signing a total of 225 executive orders this year, which surpasses his first-term total within just 11 months. In contrast, The Washington Post reported that Congress set a modern record for the lowest legislative output in the first year of a new presidency, passing only 38 bills that became law as of December 19, 2025. Although Trump signed six additional bills shortly thereafter, the total for the year reached only 44, significantly lower than the 76 laws signed in his first term and far behind the 115 signed by former President Barack Obama in his first year.
Casey Burgat, legislative affairs program director at George Washington University, points out the lack of appetite for legislating currently. Despite the Republican Party controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress, the slim margins in the House and Senate hinder substantial legislative progress. Burgat explains that internal divisions within the GOP complicate consensus on policy details, allowing Trump to rely more heavily on executive orders.
Republicans are aware that achieving legislative success is challenging, which has led to a willingness to let Trump lead from the executive branch. Burgat noted, “He can do it with the stroke of a pen,” allowing lawmakers to take credit for policies without having to navigate complex legislative hurdles.
Political dynamics are further complicated as Seth McKee, a politics professor at Oklahoma State University, highlights that Republicans face a difficult narrative in the upcoming midterms. The party’s prominent legislation, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” lacks public support. McKee states that while Republicans in solidly red districts can endorse Trump’s policies without fear, those in more competitive districts may struggle to connect with their constituents.
Democrats, currently out of power in Washington, may find an advantage in positioning themselves against what they label a do-nothing Congress. Burgat suggests this strategy has been effective historically, although it may not galvanize voters as much as overarching concerns about the economy and Trump’s performance in office.
Historically, the party of the sitting president has lost seats in eight of the last ten midterm elections over the past four decades. Notably, Trump’s Republicans lost 40 House seats in the 2018 elections. The Cook Political Report currently indicates that just 17 out of 435 House seats are considered toss-ups for the 2026 midterms, while only two Senate seats fall into the same category.
Experts concur that Democrats are well-positioned to reclaim the House, although the Senate landscape may favor Republicans. The current Congress, despite its low output, has seen significant policy initiatives within the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Charles Hunt, a politics professor at Boise State University, notes that Congress has increasingly turned to omnibus legislation, which combines numerous legislative priorities into a single bill. While this approach may create the appearance of reduced legislative activity, Hunt believes it reflects deeper dysfunction within Congress.
He commented on the challenges faced by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, noting that his effectiveness is impacted by a factionalized Republican caucus. “He’s got a handful of really far-right members who have given him a hard time,” Hunt explained, while also contending with centrist members concerned about their competitive districts.
Although Trump has shifted some power away from the legislative branch, Hunt believes Congress has taken recent steps to reassert its authority, including votes related to the Epstein files and efforts to regulate stock trading among its members.
As Congress approaches the fiscal year’s spending bills and the 2026 midterms, Belt does not expect significant legislative developments outside budgetary matters. He speculates potential congressional action if Trump’s powers are constrained by court rulings, particularly concerning tariffs or other contentious issues. With the public’s focus on healthcare, particularly the lapsing of Obamacare subsidies, lawmakers may eventually feel pressured to address these topics.
The evolving political landscape leading up to the 2026 midterm elections remains uncertain. As Congress grapples with internal divisions and external pressures, the effectiveness of legislative initiatives will continue to be scrutinized by both political analysts and the electorate.
