A recent national survey conducted by Emerson College Polling reveals a noteworthy trend among voters regarding the upcoming 2028 presidential election. The survey indicates that moderates from both major parties are preferred over candidates with more extreme political views. When asked about hypothetical candidates described as “progressive,” “MAGA,” or “moderate,” the data highlights a significant inclination towards moderate candidates among voters.
In a hypothetical matchup, a moderate Democrat garnered 47% of the vote against a “Make America Great Again” Republican, who received 38%. Conversely, a moderate Republican outperformed a progressive Democrat, capturing 48% to 36%. The support for moderates was even more pronounced among independent voters, suggesting a potential shift in the political landscape.
Despite these findings, political analysts caution that voters may express a preference for moderates but often opt for more extreme candidates when casting their votes. Jake Neiheisel, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo, noted, “We have had a penchant in recent years for what’s sometimes described as leapfrog representation, where you get one extreme, you don’t really like it, you go to the other extreme.” He added that while moderates may sound appealing in theory, their practical viability remains uncertain.
Another expert, Seth McKee, a politics professor at Oklahoma State University, emphasized that centrist candidates tend to attract more support at the ballot box. “There are several more points to be won if you’re a more centrist or moderate candidate,” he explained. He highlighted that extreme partisan voters are less likely to deviate from their chosen candidates, making moderate candidates particularly appealing to crucial swing voters.
Despite the apparent preference for moderation, Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, pointed out that the political field often favors candidates with more extreme views. “One man’s moderate is another man’s extremist,” he remarked, indicating that perceptions of what constitutes moderation can vary widely among voters.
The challenges facing moderate candidates are further compounded by primary elections, where politically active voters tend to lean more towards the extremes. Loge noted that if multiple moderate candidates split the non-extreme vote, an extreme candidate could emerge victorious in the primary process.
Looking ahead to the 2028 election, Neiheisel anticipates a matchup between a progressive Democrat and a MAGA Republican. He stated, “Parties tend to double down on whatever they thought that they weren’t sufficiently enough of, and also what worked.” This suggests that Democrats may lean towards more progressive candidates, while Republicans may maintain their current trajectory.
In contrast, McKee foresees a possible scenario where a moderate Democrat faces off against a MAGA Republican. He highlighted the challenges the GOP faces in identifying a moderate candidate who can secure the nomination. “The real advantage Democrats have is their talent comes from governors,” he said, mentioning several moderate Democratic governors, including Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, who could potentially enter the presidential race.
McKee also pointed out that while Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, represents a progressive option, his association with California liberalism may hinder his candidacy in early Southern primaries. Furthermore, he noted that Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, despite her recent gubernatorial victory, could also emerge as a viable candidate, given Virginia’s unique one-term limit for governors.
On the Republican side, McKee identified Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a likely candidate who could appeal to moderate voters against a progressive opponent, such as Newsom. He reiterated that centrist matchups tend to be more favorable to voters than extreme pairings.
As the political landscape evolves, the implications of this survey may shape the strategies of both parties leading up to the 2028 election. With voter preferences indicating a lean towards moderation, the forthcoming campaign may be pivotal in determining the future direction of American politics.
