Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on October 6, 2023, during the 23rd Russia-India Summit in New Delhi. The two leaders announced a commitment to enhance their economic partnership, aiming to boost annual trade between their nations to $100 billion by 2030. This summit occurs as the United States intensifies its efforts to reshape India’s long-standing relationship with Russia, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Following his arrival in India on October 5, Putin was warmly welcomed by Modi, who greeted him with a bear hug and a firm handshake. The discussions led to the finalization of an economic cooperation program set to extend until 2030, which aims to diversify trade and increase mutual business engagement. Current bilateral trade between India and Russia stands at $68.7 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2023, heavily favoring Russia and creating significant trade deficits for India.
Putin expressed optimism about the future of their economic collaboration. “To achieve this significant goal, a program for the development of Russian-Indian economic cooperation until 2030 has been agreed upon,” he stated. The Russian leader also mentioned ongoing negotiations for India to create a free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union, a group of former Soviet states, which he believes could further enhance trade opportunities.
Energy cooperation remains a cornerstone of the Russia-India relationship, with Putin emphasizing Russia’s role as a reliable supplier of energy resources essential for India’s rapidly growing economy. “We are ready to continue ensuring the uninterrupted supply of fuel for the rapidly growing Indian economy,” he affirmed. Modi echoed this sentiment, highlighting the historical significance of energy security in their bilateral ties, which include decades of collaboration in civil nuclear technology.
While India has consistently upheld strong ties with Russia, analysts warn that Putin’s visit may complicate New Delhi’s relations with Western nations, particularly the European Union and the United States. The U.S. has previously expressed concerns that India’s imports of Russian oil could financially support Moscow’s military actions in Ukraine. The Trump administration had raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50% in August 2023, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil.
Indian officials have maintained that New Delhi adheres to international sanctions and will comply with any restrictions regarding Russian oil purchases. Recently, the U.S. imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, in an effort to influence countries like India to reduce their imports of Russian energy.
The geopolitical dynamics surrounding India’s relationship with Russia are further complicated by India’s concurrent efforts to forge a strategic partnership with the United States. According to Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, “the significant change now is [India’s] desire to be a strategic partner with the U.S. at the same time, which will be a diplomatic challenge.”
As part of their ongoing negotiations, India is also working to expedite the delivery of additional Russian S-400 missile systems, with three already received under a $5.4 billion deal from 2018. Delays in these deliveries have been attributed to supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, India aims to enhance military cooperation with Russia, including upgrades for its Russian-made Su-30MKI fighter jets.
While strengthening economic ties, India is also keen to boost its exports of pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and textiles to Russia. Indian officials have expressed interest in removing non-tariff barriers to facilitate this trade. Another area of focus is regulating the migration of skilled Indian workers to Russia, which could lead to greater labor mobility between the two countries.
Putin’s last visit to India was in 2021, and this recent summit underscores the ongoing strategic balancing act that India must navigate between its historical ties to Russia and its aspirations for closer relations with the West. The complexities of these international relationships will continue to shape the geopolitical landscape as India seeks to assert its position on the global stage.
