As winter approaches, health officials in the United States report that flu activity remains relatively low, but they express concerns about a potential increase in virus-related illnesses. According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on October 27, 2023, flu activity was classified as high in only four states: Colorado, Louisiana, New Jersey, and New York. Most regions, however, are experiencing minimal to low levels of flu activity.
Despite the current low numbers, the CDC indicates that severity indicators are rising but remain within the parameters of a “mild” season. The winter months typically see a spike in various respiratory illnesses, including colds, flu, and norovirus, a highly contagious virus that leads to vomiting and diarrhea. In recent weeks, norovirus cases have been trending upward.
Experts are particularly focused on the flu virus this season. Last winter, the flu season was severe, recording the highest hospitalization rates since the H1N1 pandemic in 2009. The total number of pediatric flu deaths that season reached 288, equaling the toll from the 2009-2010 pandemic. This week, the CDC reported the first pediatric flu death for the current season, raising concerns among health officials.
One strain of the flu virus, known as A H3N2, is especially worrisome due to its historical impact on older populations. Currently, this strain is the most frequently reported, with a significant majority, approximately 89%, of analyzed H3N2 infections being a new variant known as the subclade K. This variant differs from the strain included in this year’s flu vaccines, which complicates the situation as flu seasons often peak around February.
The CDC recommends that everyone aged six months and older receive an annual flu vaccination, emphasizing that it is not too late to get vaccinated. Current statistics indicate that about 42% of U.S. adults and 41% of children have received flu shots this season. While these vaccinations may not prevent all flu symptoms, they can significantly reduce the severity of infections, as suggested by preliminary analyses from the UK.
Another virus of concern is respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which often peaks in late fall or winter. Traditionally, RSV fills hospitals with young children suffering from respiratory issues. Although reports indicate that this season’s RSV activity has started later than usual, there are signs of increasing infections in southern and mid-Atlantic states.
Dr. Cameron Wolfe, an infectious diseases expert at Duke University, noted that the introduction of new RSV vaccines for pregnant women and older adults, along with laboratory-engineered antibody injections for infants, might be helping to mitigate the impact of RSV this season. CDC data shows that as of October, around 41% of Americans aged 75 and older have been vaccinated against RSV, while approximately 40% of infants are reported to be protected.
In the context of COVID-19, activity levels have seen a decline from previous peaks. Recent CDC research highlights the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine in preventing severe illness in children. Among children aged nine months to four years, the vaccine demonstrated a 76% effectiveness rate in preventing symptoms severe enough to require emergency medical attention. For older children, aged five to seventeen, effectiveness was recorded at 56%.
Despite these findings, vaccination rates for COVID-19 have dropped significantly this season, with only about 7% of children and 15% of adults receiving the latest version of the vaccine. Following guidance from the CDC, the Trump administration has stopped recommending COVID-19 vaccines for healthy children, shifting the responsibility of vaccination decisions to individual families. This change has generated criticism from various doctors’ groups and scientific organizations concerned about the potential risks of relaxing vaccination recommendations for a virus that has contributed to over 1.2 million deaths in the U.S.
The landscape of respiratory viruses this winter continues to evolve, prompting health officials to remain vigilant. While current data suggests a manageable flu season thus far, the potential for increased infections in the coming months highlights the importance of vaccination and public health initiatives.
