UPDATE: A new Yale Youth Poll reveals urgent insights into the 2028 U.S. presidential race, with Vice President JD Vance emerging as the clear Republican favorite, garnering 51% of support among voters. The poll indicates that if the election were held today, Vance would decisively outpace his nearest rival, Donald Trump Jr., by an astonishing 43 points.
In the Democratic corner, California Governor Gavin Newsom is leading with 25% support, positioning him as the strongest contender against Vance. Following Newsom are notable figures such as Kamala Harris at 18%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 16%, and Pete Buttigieg at 14%. This poll was conducted among 3,426 registered voters from October 29 to November 11, 2025, with a margin of error of +/- 1.7 points.
The findings underscore a significant generational divide in candidate support. While a majority of voters over 45 favor Donald Trump for a possible third term, younger voters are shifting their preferences. Only 20% of those aged 18-22 would support Trump in a 2028 GOP primary, indicating a potential shift in political dynamics among younger Republicans.
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, has publicly endorsed Vance as the front-runner for the GOP nomination, further solidifying his status. Meanwhile, the poll analysis suggests that younger and older voters largely agree on their preferred candidates, reflecting a rare consensus within the party.
On the Democratic side, Newsom’s appeal is particularly strong among male voters, with 32% support, while Harris resonates more with female voters and Black Democrats, who favor her at 24% and 47%, respectively. Notably, Ocasio-Cortez leads among Democrats under 35 with 32% support, showcasing the diverse preferences within the party.
The poll highlights that 85% of Democrats view Newsom as the most electable candidate against a generic Republican in the general election, reinforcing his position as a formidable opponent.
As these developments unfold, all eyes will be on the evolving landscape of the 2028 presidential race. With both parties showing clear front-runners, the upcoming months will be critical as candidates solidify their campaigns and rally support from their respective bases.
Stay tuned for more updates as the race heats up and candidates outline their visions for the future of America.
