The Golden State Warriors will face off against the Dallas Mavericks on December 25, 2025, as part of the NBA’s Christmas Day schedule. This matchup features two Western Conference teams with contrasting fortunes this season. The Warriors enter the game with a record of 15 wins and 15 losses, placing them eighth in the Western Conference standings. In contrast, the Mavericks sit at 12 wins and 19 losses, positioned 11th in the same conference.
Key player injuries are impacting both teams. For Dallas, star guard Kyrie Irving will miss the game due to a knee injury. The Warriors are also managing player conditions, with Klay Thompson listed as probable due to a knee issue and PJ Washington uncertain for the game because of a foot injury. The game is set to tip off at 17:00 ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco.
In terms of betting, the Warriors are currently favored by 8.5 points, with an over/under set at 229.5 points. The money line for Golden State stands at -341, meaning a bettor would need to stake $341 to win $100. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are listed at +271 on the money line, indicating a potential high return for those backing the underdogs.
For those looking for informed picks on this matchup, the SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the game 10,000 times. This model has been notably successful in the past, yielding over $10,000 in profit for players betting $100 on its top NBA picks during the last eight seasons. Currently, the model is on a strong run, boasting a 30-14 record on top-rated spread picks dating back to last season.
As for the predicted outcome, the model leans towards the total score going under 229.5 points. Golden State has seen two of its last three games fall below this total, while Dallas has had a slight trend towards the under this season, with 52% of its games hitting that mark. While the Mavericks are dealing with injuries to key offensive players, their defensive anchor, Anthony Davis, remains healthy, which could significantly impact the game’s dynamics. The model forecasts a combined score of 227 points, supporting the expectation that the under will hit more than 50% of the time.
For those interested in betting on this game, the SportsLine model also provides an against-the-spread pick that has shown a nearly 60% success rate in simulations. Fans and bettors are encouraged to visit SportsLine for the latest insights and predictions.
As the Warriors prepare to take on the Mavericks in this holiday matchup, both teams will be looking to improve their standings and capitalize on the festive occasion. With player injuries and betting odds shaping the narrative, this game promises to be an intriguing contest in the heart of the NBA season.
